Is a Goldilocks economy just a fairy tale? | J.P. Morgan Private Bank Asia (2024)

Allcompanies referenced are shown for illustrative purposes only, andare notintended as arecommendation or endorsem*nt by J.P. Morgan in this context.

All market and economic data as of May 2024 and sourced from Bloomberg Finance L.P. and FactSet unless otherwise stated.

The information presented is not intended to be making value judgments on the preferred outcome of any government decision.

Key Risks

THE PRICE OF EQUITY SECURITIES MAY RISE OR FALL DUE TO THE CHANGES IN THE BROAD MARKET OR CHANGES IN A COMPANY'S FINANCIAL CONDITION, SOMETIMES RAPIDLY OR UNPREDICTABLY. EQUITY SECURITIES ARE SUBJECT TO 'STOCK MARKET RISK' MEANING THAT STOCK PRICES IN GENERAL MAY DECLINE OVER SHORT OR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. • INVESTING IN FIXED INCOME PRODUCTS SUBJECT TO CERTAIN RISKS, INCLUDING INTEREST RATE, CREDIT, INFLATION, CALL, PREPAYMENT AND REINVESTMENT RISK. ANY FIXED INCOME SECURITY SOLD OR REDEEMED PRIOR TO MATURITY MAY BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL GAIN OR LOSS. •INVESTMENT IN ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES IS SPECULATIVE, OFTEN INVOLVES A GREATER DEGREE OF RISK THAN TRADITIONAL INVESTMENTS INCLUDING LIMITED LIQUIDITY AND LIMITED TRANSPARENCY, AMONG OTHER FACTORS AND SHOULD ONLY BE CONSIDERED BY SOPHISTICATED INVESTORS WITH THE FINANCIAL CAPABILITY TO ACCEPT THE LOSS OF ALL OR PART OF THE ASSETS DEVOTED TO SUCH STRATEGIES.

This material is for informational purposes only, and may inform you of certain products and services offered by private banking businesses, part of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (“JPM”). Products and services described, as well as associated fees, charges and interest rates, aresubject to change in accordance with the applicable account agreements and may differ among geographic locations. Not all products and services are offered at all locations.If you are a person with a disability and need additional support accessing thismaterial, please contact your J.P. Morgan team or email us at accessibility.support@jpmorgan.comfor assistance. Please read all Important Information.

General Risks & Considerations

Any views, strategies or products discussed in this material may not be appropriate for all individuals and are subject to risks. Investors may get back less than they invested, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.Asset allocation/diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Nothing in this material should be relied upon in isolation for the purpose of making an investment decision. You are urged to consider carefully whether the services, products, asset classes (e.g., equities, fixed income, alternative investments, commodities, etc.) or strategies discussed are suitable to your needs. You must also consider the objectives, risks, charges, and expenses associated with an investment service, product or strategy prior to making an investment decision. For this and more complete information, including discussion of your goals/situation, contact your J.P. Morgan team.

Non-Reliance

Certain information contained in this material is believed to be reliable; however, JPM does not represent or warrant its accuracy, reliability or completeness, or accept any liability for anyloss or damage (whether direct or indirect) arising out of the use of all or any part of this material. No representation or warranty should be made with regard to any computations, graphs, tables, diagrams or commentary in this material, which are provided for illustration/ reference purposes only. The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed in this material constitute our judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. JPM assumes no duty to update any information in this material in theevent that such information changes. Views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other areas of JPM, views expressed for other purposes or in other contexts, and this material should not be regarded as a research report. Any projected results and risks are based solely on hypothetical examples cited, and actual results and risks will vary depending on specific circ*mstances. Forward-looking statements should not be considered as guarantees or predictions of future events.

Nothing in this document shall be construed as giving rise to any duty of care owed to, or advisory relationship with, you or any third party. Nothing in this document shall be regarded as an offer, solicitation, recommendation or advice (whether financial, accounting, legal, tax or other) given by J.P. Morgan and/or its officers or employees, irrespective of whether or not such communication was given at your request. J.P. Morgan and its affiliates and employees do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transactions.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT YOUR INVESTMENTS AND POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

Conflicts of interest will arise whenever JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. or any of its affiliates (together, “J.P. Morgan”) have an actual or perceived economic or other incentive in its management of our clients’ portfolios to act in a way that benefits J.P. Morgan. Conflicts will result, for example (to the extent the following activities are permitted in your account): (1)when J.P. Morgan invests in an investment product, such as a mutual fund, structured product, separately managed account or hedge fund issued or managed by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. or an affiliate, such as J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc.; (2)whena J.P. Morgan entity obtains services, including trade execution and trade clearing, from an affiliate; (3)when J.P. Morgan receives payment as a result of purchasing an investment product for a client’s account; or (4)when J.P. Morgan receives payment for providing services (including shareholder servicing, recordkeeping or custody) with respect toinvestment products purchased for a client’s portfolio. Other conflicts will result because ofrelationships that J.P. Morgan has with other clients or when J.P. Morgan acts for its ownaccount.

Investment strategies are selected from both J.P. Morgan and third-party asset managers and are subject to a review process by our manager research teams. From this pool of strategies, our portfolio construction teams select those strategies we believe fit our asset allocation goals and forward-looking views in order to meet the portfolio’s investment objective.

As a general matter, we prefer J.P. Morgan managed strategies. We expect the proportion of J.P. Morgan managed strategies will be high (in fact, up to 100 percent) in strategies such as, for example, cash and high-quality fixed income, subject to applicable law and any account-specific considerations.

While our internally managed strategies generally align well with our forward-looking views, and we are familiar with the investment processes as well as the risk and compliance philosophy of the firm, it is important to note that J.P. Morgan receives more overall fees when internally managed strategies are included. We offer the option of choosing to exclude J.P. Morgan managed strategies (other than cash and liquidity products) in certain portfolios.

The Six Circles Funds are U.S.-registered mutual funds managed by J.P. Morgan and sub-advised by third parties. Although considered internally managed strategies, JPMC does not retain a fee for fund management or other fund services.

Legal Entity, Brand & Regulatory Information

In the United States, bank deposit accounts and related services, such as checking, savings and bank lending, are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC.

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates (collectively “JPMCB”) offer investment products, which may include bank-managed investment accounts and custody, as part of its trust and fiduciary services. Other investment products and services, such as brokerage and advisory accounts, are offered through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (“JPMS”), a member of FINRA and SIPC. Insurance products are made available through Chase Insurance Agency, Inc. (CIA), a licensed insurance agency, doing business as Chase Insurance Agency Services, Inc. in Florida. JPMCB, JPMS and CIA are affiliated companies under the common control of JPM. Products not available in all states.

In Germany, this material is issued by J.P. Morgan SE, with its registered office at Taunustor 1 (TaunusTurm), 60310 Frankfurt am Main, Germany, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB). In Luxembourg, this material is issued by J.P. Morgan SE—Luxembourg Branch, with registered office at European Bank and Business Centre, 6 route de Treves, L-2633, Senningerberg, Luxembourg, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE—Luxembourg Branch is also supervised by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF); registered under R.C.S Luxembourg B255938. In the United Kingdom, this material is issued by J.P. Morgan SE—London Branch, registered office at 25 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE—London Branch is also supervised by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. In Spain, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE, Sucursal en España, with registered office at Paseo de la Castellana, 31, 28046 Madrid, Spain, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE, Sucursal en España is also supervised by the Spanish Securities Market Commission (CNMV); registered with Bank of Spain as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under code 1567. In Italy, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE—Milan Branch, with its registered office at Via Cordusio, n.3, Milan 20123, Italy, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE—Milan Branch is also supervised by Bank of Italy and the Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB); registered with Bank of Italy as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under code 8076; Milan Chamber of Commerce Registered Number: REA MI 2536325. In the Netherlands, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE—Amsterdam Branch, with registered office at World Trade Centre, Tower B, Strawinskylaan 1135, 1077 XX, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE—Amsterdam Branch is also supervised by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) and the Autoriteit Financiële Markten (AFM) in the Netherlands. Registered with the Kamer van Koophandel as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under registration number 72610220. In Denmark, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE—Copenhagen Branch, filial af J.P. Morgan SE, Tyskland, with registered office at Kalvebod Brygge 39-41, 1560 København V, Denmark, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE—Copenhagen Branch, filial af J.P. Morgan SE, Tyskland is also supervised by Finanstilsynet (Danish FSA) and is registered with Finanstilsynet as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under code 29010. In Sweden, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE—Stockholm Bankfilial, with registered office at Hamngatan 15, Stockholm, 11147, Sweden, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE—Stockholm Bankfilial is also supervised by Finansinspektionen (Swedish FSA); registered with Finansinspektionen as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE. In Belgium, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE—Brussels Branch with registered office at 35 Boulevard du Régent, 1000, Brussels, Belgium, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE Brussels Branch is also supervised by the National Bank of Belgium (NBB) and the Financial Services and Markets Authority (FSMA) in Belgium; registered with the NBB under registration number 0715.622.844. In Greece, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE—Athens Branch, with its registered office at 3 Haritos Street, Athens, 10675, Greece, authorized by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB); J.P. Morgan SE—Athens Branch is also supervised by Bank of Greece; registered with Bank of Greece as a branch of J.P. Morgan SE under code 124; Athens Chamber of Commerce Registered Number 158683760001; VAT Number 99676577. In France, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan SE – Paris Branch, with its registered office at 14, Place Vendôme 75001 Paris, France, authorized by the Bundesanstaltfür Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and jointly supervised by the BaFin, the German Central Bank (Deutsche Bundesbank) and the European Central Bank (ECB) under code 842 422 972; J.P. Morgan SE – Paris Branch is also supervised by the French banking authorities the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution (ACPR) and the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF). In Switzerland, this material is distributed by J.P. Morgan (Suisse) SA, with registered address at rue du Rhône, 35, 1204, Geneva, Switzerland, which is authorized and supervised by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) as a bank and a securities dealer in Switzerland.

This communication is an advertisem*nt for the purposes of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MIFID II) and the Swiss Financial Services Act (FINSA). Investors should not subscribe for or purchase any financial instruments referred to in this advertisem*nt except on the basis of information contained in any applicable legal documentation, which is or shall be made available in the relevant jurisdictions (as required).

In Hong Kong, this material is distributed by JPMCB, Hong Kong branch. JPMCB, Hong Kong branch is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. In Hong Kong, we will cease to use your personal data for our marketing purposes without charge if you so request. In Singapore, this material is distributed by JPMCB, Singapore branch. JPMCB, Singapore branch is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Dealing and advisory services and discretionary investment management services are provided to you by JPMCB, Hong Kong/Singapore branch (as notified to you). Banking and custody services are provided to you by JPMCB Singapore Branch. The contents of this document have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority inHong Kong, Singapore or any other jurisdictions. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to this document. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice. For materials which constitute product advertisem*nt under the Securities and Futures Act and the Financial Advisers Act, this advertisem*nt has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., a national banking association chartered under the laws of the United States, and as a body corporate, its shareholder’s liability is limited.

With respect to countries in Latin America, the distribution of this material may be restricted in certain jurisdictions. We may offer and/or sell to you securities or other financial instruments which may not be registered under, and are not the subject of a public offering under, the securities or other financial regulatory laws of your home country. Such securities or instruments are offered and/or sold to you on a private basis only. Any communication by us to you regarding such securities or instruments, including without limitation the delivery of a prospectus, term sheet or other offering document, is not intended by us as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or instruments in any jurisdiction in which such an offer or a solicitation is unlawful. Furthermore, such securities or instruments may be subject to certain regulatory and/or contractual restrictions on subsequent transfer by you, and you are solely responsible for ascertaining and complying with such restrictions. To the extent this content makes reference to a fund, the Fund may not be publicly offered in any Latin American country, without previous registration of such fund’s securities in compliance with the laws of the corresponding jurisdiction.

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (JPMCBNA) (ABN 43 074 112 011/AFS Licence No: 238367) isregulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Material provided by JPMCBNA in Australia is to “wholesale clients” only. For the purposes of this paragraph the term “wholesale client” has the meaning given in section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). Please inform us if you are not a Wholesale Client now or if you cease to be a Wholesale Client at any time in the future.

JPMS is a registered foreign company (overseas) (ARBN 109293610) incorporated in Delaware, U.S.A. Under Australian financial services licensing requirements, carrying on a financial services business in Australia requires a financial service provider, such as J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL), unless an exemption applies. JPMS is exempt from the requirement to hold an AFSL under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) (Act) in respect of financial services it provides to you, and is regulated by the SEC, FINRA and CFTC under U.S. laws, which differ from Australian laws. Material provided by JPMS in Australia is to “wholesale clients” only. The information provided in this material is not intended to be, and must not be, distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons in Australia. For the purposes of this paragraph the term “wholesale client” has the meaning given in section 761G of the Act. Please inform us immediately if you are not a Wholesale Client now or if you cease to bea Wholesale Client at any time in the future.

This material has not been prepared specifically for Australian investors. It:

  • May contain references to dollar amounts which are not Australian dollars;
  • May contain financial information which is not prepared in accordance with Australian law or practices;
  • May not address risks associated with investment in foreign currency denominated investments; and
  • Does not address Australian tax issues.

References to “J.P. Morgan” are to JPM, its subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. “J.P. Morgan Private Bank” is the brand name for the private banking business conducted by JPM. This material is intended for your personal use and should not be circulated to or used by any other person, or duplicated for non-personal use, without our permission. If you have any questions or no longer wish to receive these communications, please contact your J.P. Morgan team.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Is a Goldilocks economy just a fairy tale? | J.P. Morgan Private Bank Asia (2024)

FAQs

What is the Goldilocks economy? ›

Goldilocks economy refers to the perfect or the ideal state of an economy. The economy will reflect the stability of growth, complete employment, and so on. There is neither a high growth nor a slowdown. The economy follows a steady growth to avoid any ups and downs.

What is the Goldilocks principle of economics? ›

A Goldilocks economy describes an ideal state for an economy where it's not expanding or contracting by too much. A Goldilocks economy has steady economic growth, preventing a recession, but not so much growth that inflation rises by a great deal.

What is the Goldilocks situation? ›

Meaning of Goldilocks in English

used to describe a situation in which something is or has to be exactly right: The Mayor takes a Goldilocks approach to his city's 18 percent growth: It's not too fast and not too slow.

What is the Goldilocks report? ›

Goldilocks economy is primarily used to describe the economic indicators of the Great Moderation: stable GDP growth, industrial production, monthly payroll employment, unemployment rate, real wages and consumer prices.

What is the main idea of Goldilocks? ›

Answer and Explanation:

The themes associated with the story, Goldilocks and the Three Bears, include people should treat others how they would like to be treated and don't judge a book by its cover.

What does Goldilocks mean? ›

/ˈɡəʊldɪlɑːks/ ​without extremes; just right. The planet is in what astronomers call the Goldilocks zone: neither too hot, nor too cold. a return to the Goldilocks economy when growth was just right.

What is Goldilocks' solution? ›

The Goldilocks principle states that people prefer having the “just right” amount of something to having too much or too little of it. It is often used to describe people's inclinations to choose the middle ground for things like their drink's sweetness, room temperature, task difficulty, and more.

What is the Goldilocks Rule? ›

The Goldilocks Rule states that humans experience peak motivation when working on tasks that are right on the edge of their current abilities.

What is the Goldilocks problem all about? ›

The Goldilocks problem asks the question: Why is Venus too hot, Mars too cold, and the Earth just right for liquid water? 2. Define the greenhouse effect and explain its impact on the Goldilocks problem. Light from the Sun passes through the Earth's atmosphere and warms the surface of the Earth.

What is the real Goldilocks story? ›

The original version of the tale tells of an impudent old woman who enters the forest home of three anthropomorphic bachelor bears while they are away. She eats some of their porridge, sits down on one of their chairs, breaks it, and sleeps in one of their beds.

What is the Goldilocks effect in your personal life? ›

The Goldilocks Effect stems from our inclination towards finding an optimal point that satisfies our needs or preferences. Whether it's temperature, taste, size, or complexity, humans have a tendency to seek out options that are neither too much nor too little, but rather fall within an ideal range.

What is the moral behind Goldilocks? ›

The moral of “Goldilocks and the 3 Bears” for kids is that “one should never enter into someone else's home or property without their permission” or “one should never intrude someone's privacy.

What is the Goldilocks Zone in the economy? ›

A Goldilocks scenario in an economy refers to an ideal situation where there is a steady growth. The economic growth is neither too high to trigger inflation and nor too low for a slowdown.

What is Goldilocks guilty of? ›

This time, a jury of her peers wasn't charmed by her innocent smile or persuaded by her creative excuses. They found her guilty of trespassing and theft in a mock trial in Judge Linda Marquis' courtroom at the Family Division of District Court.

What is the Goldilocks paradox? ›

Remember Goldilocks and the Three Bears? Goldilocks found the balance between her porridge being too hot and too cold. Sellers are similarly challenged to strike the right balance between being overconfident and being less than confident. Researchers have found that being overconfident has its benefits.

What is the concept of the Goldilocks Zone? ›

The distance Earth orbits the Sun is just right for water to remain a liquid. This distance from the Sun is called the habitable zone, or the Goldilocks zone. Rocky exoplanets found in the habitable zones of their stars, are more likely targets for detecting liquid water on their surfaces.

What is the Goldilocks rule explained? ›

The Goldilocks principle states that people prefer having the “just right” amount of something to having too much or too little of it. It is often used to describe people's inclinations to choose the middle ground for things like their drink's sweetness, room temperature, task difficulty, and more.

What is the Goldilocks strategy? ›

Goldilocks pricing, also known as good–better–best pricing, is a marketing strategy that uses product differentiation to offer three versions of a product to corner different parts of the market: a high-end version, a middle version, and a low-end version.

What does Goldilocks Zone mean in business? ›

The Goldilocks Zone is about finding something that's neither too hot, nor too cold, but just right for your startup. But it's not about balance or finding the “middle.” In fact, what's just right for you can sometimes be quite extreme.

References

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Van Hayes

Last Updated:

Views: 6096

Rating: 4.6 / 5 (66 voted)

Reviews: 89% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Van Hayes

Birthday: 1994-06-07

Address: 2004 Kling Rapid, New Destiny, MT 64658-2367

Phone: +512425013758

Job: National Farming Director

Hobby: Reading, Polo, Genealogy, amateur radio, Scouting, Stand-up comedy, Cryptography

Introduction: My name is Van Hayes, I am a thankful, friendly, smiling, calm, powerful, fine, enthusiastic person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.